Michael,

Thanks for the post and in principle I agree with most of your comments on “human rights” in China. As to a solution… “Good luck!!!”

You said, “We used to think that free trade with China would lead to an improvement in the human rights situation, but this has not been working. While we have seen a shift away from socialism to nationalist capitalism, the authoritarian component has remained the same. As a nation, we are locked into trade with China, and indeed are in debt to them to the tune of billions of dollars. Thus, the responsibility of effecting change is unlikely to ever be borne by this nation, however, as an individual consumer you do have the choice to effect a positive change in China, and you can vote with your wallet… But what about trade with China? Are you willing to buy only items made by reasonably compensated people and companies that refuse to take economic advantage of limited human rights?”… what are we going to do about China?”

Michael, the following are my quick opinions in the “political, social, economic” arena and unlike some others I allow for disagreement with my understanding without considering others “unethical” that don’t see it my way. I approach this from an American viewpoint. I approach it from a “free market” position.

I suggest now in the US we have evolved into a “Wall Street” market capitalism which often today is not "free enterprise" in addition to the traditional “main street” market capitalism.

I suggest that a vision of “Wall Street Investment Banking and Banks” along with the Fed/Treasury Department and Congressional trade pacts created a “rapid tract” for China’s inclusion in the world trade arena. That rapid “unnatural” pace (which might otherwise take more like 50 years) and tendency/practice to always “look the other way” to make it “rapid tract” happen has created multiple problems, including your point Michael.

In addition, I suggest our current “credit crisis” was in part a result/link of this combined effort. The China aspect of foreign trade created over 1 trillion dollars in recycled dollars coming back into US treasuries in the past 7 years by China. This was part of the “conundrum” that kept long/middle term rates low and the view that it was correct for the Fed to keep interest rates low as “there was no apparent fear of inflation/price increases by bond holders.” There was in this environment a misallocation of investment and debt around the world. You had debt expansion and a “debt bubble” of all kinds in the making. You also had other national central banks (especially Asian) inflating their currency to keep their peg to the dollar for trade advantage. Thus, I suggest, the core problem was created and allowed to exist/continue through its monetary roots which were created by the Treasury and Central Banks.

The results of that currency "inflation" are increases in demand globally for all commodities and prices escalating as the result. The most harmful effect is to the poor and those on fixed income in all societies who see rising prices without the least understanding of the true cause except to falsely blame the local merchant as being greedy for raising their prices for goods as price increases are passed along.

The developing problem had many aspects over the years. I suggest labor unions have contributed and played a part in the problem over the years in various nations by “strikes, excess benefits and wages” that created costs for goods and services to increase in a way that was excessive for other citizens.

Many manufactures and distributors decided to use China as a source of goods as the remedy rather than continuing to be forced into labor pacts as in the past that they were opposed to which also made them less competitive worldwide. Maybe they are ethically correct…perhaps not. However the unnatural fast pace and the “currency mischief” involved in this fast pace to China and globalism is/was for sure ethically wrong in my opinion.

The "trade" solution is to be found in “sound currencies” and “mirror trade pacts…so that you get only as a nation what you give in equal trade laws”…neither of which presently exists. The likely outcome of such a situation is doubtful due to special interest on all fronts. Of course in all of this I recognize mankind’s biggest problem is sin. The best policies also consider that “human action” rather than ignore it.

We live in a complex world today. If it makes you happy to avoid Chinese goods, go vegetarian or something else that makes you feel better to “save the world”, go for it and I hope you find success. What can you do? The “Big Picture” reality is likely very little today. I suggest that like it or not the die has probably been cast. Money more than principle seems to have ruled the day from many special interest quarters on all sides of the problem. It seems now that everything from Bear Stearns to China has become too intermingled and big to be allowed to fail…except for “regular” folks who by the way should be and are still responsible for their economic decisions. The concept, which favors some while ignoring moral hazard, seemingly rules the day presently in the vision of “managed globalism.” Necessity rather than principle seems to be the final driving force. It is disheartening to those who do play by the rules.

I lived in China 7 years Michael. They are "tough" folks and not easily "charmed." I met many lovely Chinese. Of course China is not alone to be blamed or the Chinese people for world problems…though your specific mentioned problem is a “National Chinese Party” problem. We are presently seeing the evidences of “sinful human nature” across many policy structures and nations in the world. On that problem the whole world truly does share commonality.

I don’t just throw up my hands, I vote for local Representatives that best share my beliefs (few to be found) and presently find no one at the Presidential level now or running that does. I personally always recognize the limitations of the political process in solving the most difficult problems.

Ultimately we need a King and His name is Jesus the Son of God and when he returns Justice and Peace shall reign for those in His kingdom!

Regards,

pat

Michael--I believe there was a book recently written by a woman who made a pledge to use nothing from China for an entire year and the difficulties this entailed. Her son got a little tired of giving only Legos as birthday presents, LOL. But her point is that it is very difficult to "cut out" Chinese-manufactured goods.

Your "solution" sounds a little too little, a little too late--like shutting the barn after the horse has escaped. The time to be concerned about China hosting the olympics was when the decision was being made (and many, many of us were concerned at the time). Protests may make the protesters feel as though they are accomplishing something, but the biggest benefit to come out of the protests is a renewed nationalism--the Party couldn't have asked for better internal PR. Even boycotting the Olympics will merely annoy the government and the people, but is totally symbolic.

Pat made many economic arguments, and I am not an economist, so I will not comment there. However, to address some of the other concerns, there are huge changes happening internally, though from the outside they may not be so obvious (especially since they don't yet reach "our" standard of freedom). Even just in the last 14 years (since the first time I lived in NE China until the most recent time I visited there from HK), there have been huge changes. For example, outside of the western part of the country, most worshippers have much more freedom to worship than when we lived there. Buddhism, Confucianism and Taoism are undergoing a huge revival.

What kind of change are you hoping to encourage? How many people would it take to make a change, in the sort of economic boycott you are proposing? For how long of a time? How would you tie the boycott to the desired outcomes? How much freedom is enough?

M

You both raised good, thoughtful, points. I do know that a boycott of the Olympics like a lot of people have been calling for is more symbolic than functional when we're still so tied into China. But, at the end of the day, I have no clue what to do about it - that's why my post ended with a question mark ("?").

But maybe we could put our heads together and think of something. I talked about boycotts, but it doesn't seem to practical and I'm not into boycotting things that I normally don't buy anyway. (Being a vegetarian, tee-totaler, non-smoker makes Lent an easy season.) I think if I have a choice between an item made there and something made somewhere else, I might pick the other item. But then there are problems there too.

It's a mess and only the Second Coming can throw all the beached starfish back into the ocean, but can't we throw one or two back ourselves?

So what do you think. Is it enough to vote for good folks who want to preserve human rights in China? What else can we do? Anything?

Hi M,

I hope all is well there for you and family.
Haven't seen you post lately. Good to hear from you and HK...your correct the horse is out of the barn. Some Americans suddenly became more interested because of the Dalai and Tibet as if those are really new issues.

Your correct, I was only addressing economic issues that seem to be "wagging" everything else today and those issues were created by the China "fast tract" interests of "high finance" in US,China and Europe. Your present high inflation/prices in HK is a playout on keeping the dollar PEG AT HK 7.8.

Also correct that the NPC is primarily concerned with Power/Control.They change when they want and all else is subservient to that plan and control. Boycots and Marches have little effect in the "Big Picture."

I think one of China's looming problems is the dislocation of personal income from rural farmers versus the cities. The longer they stay focused on exports and a weak Yuan and not dealing with those problems the hotter that issue will become.

As you observed certain changes are occuring gradually in China. China is not one to be goaded however as you have correctly observed. They are extremely cautious that nothing upsets their apple cart.

I feel sure Michael will later respond to you.

regards,

pat

Michael,

We posted at the same time.

You ask, "So what do you think. Is it enough to vote for good folks who want to preserve human rights in China? What else can we do? Anything?"

Prayer.

Hi Pat--yeah, I haven't posted in a while. Busy, uninformed, whatever--I often read here, but rarely post.

Michael, I think the thing to do is to keep China engaged and put whatever pressure we can on them in private. They have and will respond to pressure, but not if it's out in the open and "in your face". When the trade secretaries are using the media to get their message to each other, nothing will happen except deeper entrenchment.

We have to keep in mind that China watched very closely as the USSR collapsed and went to pieces right in their backyard. The government does not want that to happen to China--they are okay with small, gradual changes, but they do not want anarchy (nor do the Chinese people).

In fact, the Chinese people would much rather be safe than free. And with all the change that is taking place (Pat alluded to the farmers vs. cities, and there are many nuances to that situation), the government needs to keep tight control to keep its people "safe" (whatever that means). That is not something that we Americans / western-educated people like or understand very well. But China looks at the US, with its huge prison population and soaring crime rates, and says, in essence, take care of the beam in your own eye before telling us about the mote in ours.

If you look at Chinese history, you will see that the Chinese people have never had "freedom" (in a Western sense), though they have had stability (and instability, depending on who was in power). The CCP is merely the latest in a 4000 year long line of dynasties. And when you study Chinese history, you will see that the CCP is following quite closely in the footsteps of other dynasties (destroying artifacts, killing dissidents, rewriting history, getting rid of "the olds" like thought, philosophy, religion, etc). This is one reason that my Chinese friends are so philosophical about modern China and unwilling to speculate or get involved with opposition. They know from history what happens to those who do.

Until American politicians take the time to educate themselves and understand (or attempt to understand) the mindset of the Chinese, I don't think there will be much success in effecting change. Condi Rice is / was an expert in the Soviet Union. When we get someone at that level in the government with that level of education and understanding about the Chinese, then we may have some success. I have not looked closely at any of the three major presidential contenders to know their POV on China--I would guess McCain would be the least open to understanding and Obama the most (though the Chinese loved Bill Clinton, since he was the one who supported their joining the WTO--which I still have mixed feelings on, but that's another issue--so they may love Hillary as well, I don't know).

If you have a politician who is willing to learn and to "speak softly and carry a big stick" rather than beat with the stick while yelling, vote for him / her. But if you have someone like Nancy Pelosi, who talks loudly and "in your face," tread carefully--she causes the CCP to put up barriers against her and the government (since, in her speaking, she represents the government).

Ultimately, I do not have solutions except to keep some kind of pressure privately. China has shown that it is sensitive to certain issues--but it takes great diplomacy and knowledge and understanding and sensitivity to approach them--and I don't currently see a lot other than cramming "our" POV down their throat and they have no choice but to accept.

And like Pat said, Prayer. I have many friends in China I pray for--Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, athiests, party members--And these people are the ones who can bring about some changes, locally, in their sphere of influence. My one good friend who is a Party member and Christian (yes, it happens, more and more often as members get disillusioned with the Party rhetoric) works against great odds to keep herself "clean" in her dealings in the university she teaches in. In other words, she does not help students cheat on exams (even while being pressured by co-workers to do so), she does not accept bribes from parents to help their students get into her school, she has not bribed anyone to get a job or study position (she is currently working on a PhD on her second try to get into the program--didn't make it the first time, even though her test results were the highest, because she didn't offer the professor a bribe). This is how any change will ultimately take place--from the ground level up.

M

M,

True change always occurs from the ground up. The other is always "pressure" from above.

I think the Chinese Gov. is reasonable. They will not take a "bait and switch" however. That occured by the British as they were leaving HK. They then offerred more seats in the HK legislature than previously and the Chinese in my opinion appropriately disapproved. The Brits changed the rules and the Chinese do not like that.

Interesting times!!

pat

Pat,

I found this interesting quote from the New York Times yesterday (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/education/29student.html?_r=1&th&emc=t...), in an article about Chinese students in the US. The quote includes a poem which I thought sums up Chinese sentiment quite concisely:

"No matter what China does, these students say, it cannot win in the
arena of world opinion. "When we have a billion people, you said we
were destroying the planet./ When we tried limiting our numbers, you
said it is human rights abuse," reads a poem posted on the Internet by
"a silent, silent Chinese" and cited by some students as an accurate
expression of their feelings. "When we were poor, you thought we were
dogs./ When we loan you cash, you blame us for your debts./ When we
build our industries, you called us polluters./ When we sell you
goods, you blame us for global warming."

M

M,

The fickleness of humanity...

“But to what shall I compare this generation? It is like children sitting in the market places, who call out to the other children, 17 and say, ‘We played the flute for you, and you did not dance; we sang a dirge, and you did not mourn.’ 18 “For John came neither eating nor drinking, and they say, ‘He has a demon!’ 19 “The Son of Man came eating and drinking, and they say, ‘Behold, a gluttonous man and a drunkard, a friend of tax-gatherers and sinners!’ Yet wisdom is vindicated by her deeds.”
Mt.11:16-19.

-------
" But Jesus, on His part, was not entrusting Himself to them, for He knew all men, 25 and because He did not need anyone to bear witness concerning man for He Himself knew what was in man."
Jn.2:24,25.

pat